Week 9 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
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Saints RB Alvin Kamara Michael Owens/Getty Images
Week 8 was full of surprises, including a truly incredible—or baffling, depending on how you view it—finish in the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears matchup.
It’s been a wonderfully wacky NFL season thus far, and there’s no telling what’s in store for Week 9. We have a few early ideas, though, at least in relation to box-score betting.
While the vast majority of player props won’t be available until later in the week, fans so inclined can usually find enticing box-score opportunities with the early lines. You’ll find a few of our favorites for Week 9 below.
C.J. Stroud Under 223.5 Passing Yards
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Texans QB C.J. Stroud Cooper Neill/Getty Images
Thursday’s matchup between the Houston Texans and New York Jets will be an interesting one. The Texans have been the better team through the first two months, but the Jets are desperate to get in the win column.
Picking a winner between the two will be incredibly difficult, but we do like a couple of the early player props. We like the under for C.J. Stroud’s passing prop at -115 (bet $115 to win $100) for a couple of reasons.
For one, the Jets haven’t done a lot well this season, but they’ve been able to defend the pass at times. New York ranks fourth in net yards per attempt allowed and seventh in passing yards allowed.
Secondly, the Texans are getting to be short-handed at receiver. Nico Collins remains on injured reserve, while Stefon Diggs is now officially out for the year with a torn ACL.
Expect the Texans to try grinding out a win with Joe Mixon and the ground game—something they attempted against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago. Stroud finished that game with a mere 86 passing yards.
Braelon Allen Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
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Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images
The Jets have been trying to get Aaron Rodgers going, which is why they traded for receiver Davante Adams. We’d expect them to continue trying against the Texans, though at some point the Jets need to admit what they are.
New York is a team best-suited to win with the running game and stiff defense. If the Jets are going to prevail against the Texans, who rank 24th in yards per carry allowed, they should lead with their ground attack.
That’s why the over for rookie back Braelon Allen (-120) is appealing.
Allen has only topped 20 rushing yards in four of eight games this season, and Breece Hall continues to be the lead back. However, the rookie saw 12 carries to Hall’s 16 last week against the New England Patriots.
Both backs should again see double-digit carries against the Texans. If we don’t the Jets are making a massive mistake.
The Indianapolis Colts rushed 26 times and averaged just under 5.8 yards per carry against Houston last week and came close to pulling off the upset.
Saints and Panthers Over 43.5 Total Points
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Saints QB Derek Carr Cooper Neill/Getty Images
The Carolina Panthers traded wide receiver Diontae Johnson to the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday, which isn’t the best of news for a Panthers offense that may or may not start Bryce Young again in Week 9.
Regardless of who is under center for the Panthers, we like the over (-110) for total points. Carolina’s defense has been atrocious this season, ranking 31st in yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, appear poised to have quarterback Derek Carr back in the lineup this week. With Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Tayson Hill all available, New Orleans should be able to put quite a few points on the board.
The Panthers should as well. Injuries have been the Saints’ biggest issue in 2024, but poor tackling and a general lack of effort on defense have been problematic.
Neither of these teams is particularly good right now, but this could turn out to be a wildly entertaining game with plenty of offensive back-and-forth.
Colts and Vikings Over 22.5 First-Half Points
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Vikings QB Sam Darnold Ric Tapia/Getty Images
The Indianapolis Colts are making a quarterback change and will start Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson, at least for this week.
“We are not quitting on Anthony. That will be the story but that is not the case,” a team source told ESPN’s Stephen Holder.
With Flacco in the lineup, we can expect a fair amount of scoring from the Colts offense against the Minnesota Vikings. Indianapolis has averaged just under 22 points per game this season but has averaged 27 points in every game that Flacco has finished.
The Colts defense, meanwhile, has been underwhelming. It ranks a respectable 13th in points allowed but 28th overall. We can expect Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and the Vikings to find their fair share of offense too.
And while we like the over for the game (46.5 points at -108), we like the first-half over (-118) even better.
Minnesota has had a knack for scoring quickly this season—possibly due to the scripted nature of early possessions. In their past five games, the Vikings have scored at least 10 points in the first quarter alone.
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