Only two weeks remain in the regular season, yet there’s still so much to sort out.
Which contenders can be counted on? Who has the most reliable pitchers? Who should win American League Rookie of the Year?
FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar tackle these topics and more in this week’s roundtable.
1. How would you size up the AL Rookie of the Year race?
Kavner: While Paul Skenes and the Jacksons duke it out in the National League, the AL rookie award has been up for grabs for anyone to take all year. Colton Cowser was a front-runner for much of the season, Wilyer Abreu has been one of the best AL rookies all year on a rate basis at the plate, and Luis Gil looked like the answer for a stretch of time (and could make a late charge for the award), but a different player in pinstripes has jumped to the forefront at the most important time of the year. In addition to his superb work behind the plate, Austin Wells has an .874 OPS in the second half of the season while settling into the cleanup spot for a lineup that needs the production. I don’t think Abreu is getting enough attention (even taking into account that he doesn’t hit lefties), but right now, Wells has probably done enough to jump to the top of the line in a tight race.
Thosar: In recent weeks, Yankees catcher Austin Wells went from being a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate to a legitimate contender thanks to his late surge in the team’s final stretch of the regular season. These days, the rookie catcher is batting cleanup behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge and delivering in clutch moments, batting .313 with a 1.014 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position. Similar to the division foes vying for the AL East, this will be a tight, two-man race between Wells and Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, who’s neck and neck with the Yankees backstop in slugging, wRC+, and fWAR. Cowser, who leads all AL rookies with 20 home runs, has played in roughly 40 more games and compiled 155 more plate appearances than Wells. But slugging catchers have become an endangered species, and Wells is doing all this while hitting behind two of the best hitters in MLB. I don’t have a BBWAA vote for AL Rookie of the Year this year, but I certainly don’t envy the writers who do.
2. Which division leader appears most vulnerable (as a contender, not to win their respective division) with October nearing?
Thosar: The Brewers. While their arms have been solid all year — they enter the final weeks of the regular season with a top-three pitching staff in the major leagues — the lineup is simply not as potent as other, stronger playoff contenders. Milwaukee is ranked 11th in wRC+ and 13th in slugging percentage. The Brewers do get on base a ton, drawing the most walks in MLB after the Yankees, and they make the most of their opportunities by swiping bases at a top clip. But home runs are still key to winning in the playoffs, and in that category the Brew Crew is ranked in the bottom half of the league (and below the other five first-place teams). There’s still a chance that pitching and smart, small ball can carry the Brewers on a surprising run, but their lack of power is a vulnerability that’s hard to overlook.
Kavner: The Guardians have been consistently overlooked all season, so I hate to add to that here. They deserve credit for what they’ve done, but they’re 26-25 since the All-Star break. During that time, their rotation ranks 22nd in ERA and their offense ranks 26th in OPS. Maybe Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd end up being the godsends that miraculously fix their rotation, but as much their bullpen and defense can help them lock down any lead they get better than any team in baseball, I’m still concerned about how many early leads they’ll actually have in October.
3. Which team’s top two starting pitchers would you trust most in a postseason series?
Kavner: I would’ve said Chris Sale and Reynaldo López prior to López’s shoulder issue, and it’s tempting to now just go with Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola considering their experience, but I’ll take a top two that might come as more of a surprise. I probably don’t have to tell you how good Framber Valdez has been lately, but the Astros ace has a league-leading 1.32 ERA since the start of August and came one out away from a no-hitter last month. That’s not as astonishing, though, as what his rotation mate Hunter Brown has accomplished while rebounding from a disastrous start to the year. Brown had a 16.43 ERA after his first three starts of the season. In the last of those three, he allowed 11 hits in less than an inning of work in Kansas City. It’s been a dramatic turnaround since then, particularly since the beginning of May. While using more of his sinker and changeup and dramatically cutting down his hard-hit rate, Brown has a 2.26 ERA in the season’s second half that ranks fifth in the majors. Add on what Yusei Kikuchi has done since getting traded to Houston, and the Astros can build a formidable top duo even if Justin Verlander never returns to form.
Thosar: Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Wheeler, the Phillies’ ace, has been overlooked for years now, but his brilliance on the mound will be most impactful in October when the backdrop of 42,000 screaming fans will do nothing to daunt him. Wheeler is excellent at getting out of jams, sports one of the highest strikeout rates among starters who will pitch in the postseason, and he pitches deep into games, allowing bullpens to rest and reset in critical playoff series. Behind him, Nola’s experience only makes the Phillies’ 1-2 punch stronger. The veteran right-hander has a 3.70 ERA in nine career postseason starts and was particularly dominant in last year’s October run, with his only hiccup coming against the Diamondbacks in Game 6 of the NLCS. It’s easy to trust the poise from Wheeler and Nola in a postseason series, and I’m expecting the results to back up their pedigree this fall.
4. Who’s been the most disappointing team in baseball this year?
Thosar: It’s the Texas Rangers, for me. This was quite the fall for the reigning World Series champions, who had a legitimate chance to become the first repeat World Series winners since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998-2000. They had the not-so-tall task of staying afloat in the first half, which they mostly did by heading into the All-Star break with a 46-50 record, until reinforcements came from guys like Josh Jung, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. But now that those injured players are returning, it’s the Rangers offense that has been the most disappointing. The same bats that carried them to the Fall Classic last year have been duds this year, ranking in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ and slugging, with their isolated power numbers being only slightly better than the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates and Rays. Corey Seager has looked like Corey Seager, but Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford have all hit below league average. Texas hoped its offense would carry its far-from-elite pitching staff, but Rangers bats are apparently still hungover after winning the franchise’s first championship.
Kavner: Plenty of candidates here, but it’s the Blue Jays. After their recent playoff flubs, this year felt like an inflection point for the direction of the franchise and its core of players. And it could not have gone much worse. A rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer leading the offense figured to be enough to make Toronto a contender in the competitive AL East. Instead, they’re in last place and all but assured to finish with their first losing season since 2019. Their disaster season has left many questioning where the franchise goes from here, especially considering Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all free agents after next season and the farm system could use another injection of talent even after adding some young pieces at the deadline.
5. If you had to win one game right now, who would be your starting pitcher?
Kavner: Chris Sale. On June 27, Sale went seven innings, allowed one run and struck out 11. He lost that game 1-0 — and hasn’t been charged with a loss since. As unlucky as this year has been in Atlanta, it at least brought the NL Cy Young Award favorite to town in one of the more lopsided trades we’ve seen in quite some time. Sale has an MLB-best 2.38 ERA overall and an even more spectacular 1.75 mark since the All-Star break. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since June 1. That was 17 starts ago.
Thosar: Chris Sale. From his track record, to his imposing presence on the mound, to his lights-out performances, the veteran southpaw is back to being the Chris Sale of old, when he was a perennial Cy Young contender with the White Sox and Red Sox from 2012 to 2018. Since June 1, he has a 1.91 ERA and 1.67 FIP — and has only allowed two home runs in that 16-start span. He has a legitimate shot at winning the NL pitching triple crown. In terms of winning one game right now, Sale’s ability to negate the threat of the long ball while striking batters out separates him from the pack. His 11.5 K/9 and 0.4 HR/9 both lead the majors. It has been complete control and domination for Sale this year, and on top of all of his other strengths, staying healthy and starting every fifth day has mattered the most to an Atlanta Braves team that is pushing for the playoffs. This renaissance season for Sale has earned him the title as best pitcher in MLB right now.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner .
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar .
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