Heading into Daytona, the points battle around the few remaining spots in the playoffs is incredibly close. Martin Truex Jr. enters the weekend in the safest position, 77 points ahead of the cut-line. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs is in an okay spot unless misfortune befalls him at 39 points up. But the battle between Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace is far from over. Buescher is just 16 points clear while Chastain holds the 16th and final spot with a one-point margin over Wallace. These drivers will all be chasing stage points at Daytona, and desperate to avoid the inevitable carnage.
However, from Kyle Busch on down, the goal is much simpler — win at all costs. While some may have an opportunity to win the Southern 500 at Darlington, many look to Daytona as their only remaining chance to snag a 2024 playoff berth. There are 17 drivers in a must-win situation, so let’s take a look at those most likely to pull off a dramatic eleventh-hour victory at the 2.5-mile superseedway.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – JTG Daugherty Racing
Stenhouse Jr. may be the driver everyone should keep an eye on. His aggressive style has earned him two wins at the historic speedway, including last year’s Daytona 500, but it’s also ended in disaster many times. In his last five starts at Daytona, he crashed out four times. The one time he didn’t, he was victorious. Whether he wins or not, the JTG driver will absolutely play a role in this weekend’s showdown.
Watch: Stenhouse wins longest Daytona 500 in NASCAR history
Kyle Busch – Richard Childress Racing
A 2x Cup champion, yet, finds himself facing a winless season for the first time in his full-time Cup career. But this season has been a struggle for him and RCR. He has one victory at Daytona, but that came back in 2008. During his short time with RCR, he has shown to be strong at the superspeedways and just missed out on victory in last year’s Daytona 500. Being the most experienced and successful driver below the cut-line, it would be foolish to bet against KB this weekend.
Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing, Cheddar’s Patriotic Chevrolet Camaro and Randall Burnett, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet Camaro
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images
Michael McDowell – Front Row Motorsports
The 2021 Daytona 500 winner has always been a force to be reckoned with at drafting tracks. Earlier this year, he crashed just moments away from winning at Talladega. Also a proven winner on the road courses, McDowell’s only shot to make the playoffs in back-to-back years is to capture another checkered flag at Daytona.
Watch: Tyler Reddick steals Talladega victory after last-second wreck
Austin Dillon – Richard Childress Racing
Dillon may have been the most obvious choice, if not for recent events. He won his way into the 2022 playoffs with a victory at Daytona, and he also won the 2018 Daytona 500. However, recent events at Richmond have made him a bit of a pariah in the garage, and at a place like Daytona, you’re not going to win without friends. It also doesn’t help that Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are two of the most capable superspeedway racers in the field, and both have a score to settle with the driver of the No. 3.
Watch: Austin Dillon takes the checkered flag after bumps for the lead
Erik Jones – Legacy Motor Club
2024 has been nothing but a struggle for the team co-owned by NASCAR legend Jimmie Johnson. Jones has a Cup win at Daytona and his only top-ten this year came in the season-opening Daytona 500. The fact that the Toyotas are outnumbered won’t help his cause. And with drivers like Gibbs and Wallace still in playoff peril, Jones may need to make his own way.
Erik Jones, LEGACY MOTOR CLUB, Family Dollar Toyota Camry
Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images
Corey LaJoie – Spire Motorsports
There have been two airborne crashes during the 2024 season, and both belong to this driver. LaJoie surely isn’t interested in going for the hat trick at Daytona, but he will be motivated to prove he still belongs in the top level of the sport, after Spire Motorsports announced they will part ways with LaJoie at the conclusion of the year. Over his career, he has four top-fives and nine top-tens — every single one came on drafting tracks. A fourth-place finish in this year’s 500 is his only finish higher than 11th during the 2024 season. It’s now or never for LaJoie. If not to make the playoffs, then simply to save his career.
Corey LaJoie, Spire Motorsports, Schluter Systems Chevrolet Camaro
Photo by: David Rosenblum / NKP / Motorsport Images
Justin Haley – Rick Ware Racing
Haley would be quite the upset, as RWR has never won at the Cup level. However, he has. Although rain-shortened, he won the summer Cup race at Daytona in 2017. In the Xfinity Series, he has enjoyed plenty of success in pack races. He has four Xfinity wins with two at Daytona and two at Talladega. If anyone is going to take a Rick Ware Racing car to Victory Lane, it’s going to be Haley.
Watch: Justin Haley squeezes out a win over teammates at Daytona
Noah Gragson – Stewart-Haas Racing
While a case can be made for any of the four SHR drivers on the outside of the playoffs, Gragson seems to be the best choice. His first top-five came at Daytona while running a partial Cup schedule in 2022. His only top-five of the 2024 season came at Talladega, finishing third in a career-best finish. In 2020, he earned his first Xfinity win at Daytona and always seems to appear near the front of these superspeedway races. However, the fact that SHR is shutting down at the end of the year and that all four drivers face the same must-win situation, teamwork isn’t likely to be a thing when the checkered flag is in sight.
Noah Gragson, Stewart-Haas Racing, Bass Pro Shops Winchester Ford Mustang
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images
Everybody else
Daytona loves surprises, so it’s very possible that a bracket-busting winner could come from a driver not even named in the above list. There have been seven different winners in the last seven Daytona Cup races, and four of them were drivers who failed to win anywhere during the season. While the points battle rages on, I’ll be keeping an eye on those 17 who will be swinging for the fence this weekend in hopes of pulling off a Daytona miracle.
The rest: Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Carson Hocevar, Josh Berry, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, John-Hunter Nemechek, Zane Smith, and Harrison Burton.
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